Kansas in the crosshairs of warming
Randy Scholfield, Wichita Eagle editorial writer

As a people, we're not inclined to take the long view. But sometimes it's worth listening to those who do. Our future might depend on it.

I attended a recent lecture on global warming and the future of the Great Plains by one of the nation's most distinguished historians, Donald Worster of the University of Kansas.

I don't know of anyone who has thought in a deeper or more sustained way about human habitation of the Great Plains.

His book "Dust Bowl: The Southern Plains in the 1930s" is a landmark history of that environmental disaster, which he found was caused in part by human folly and a failure to take the long view.

History might be repeating itself, he warned the audience.
The Dust Bowl, he fears, could offer a glimpse of what the future holds for Kansas unless we wake up to our global warming crisis.

It's tempting for Kansans to think that climate change is something that happens somewhere else and affects only the coasts and polar bears.
But if the scientific consensus is right, he said, our children and grandchildren face a "global catastrophe" unless humanity acts -- and soon -- to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.

Harsh region of extremes
The Great Plains have always been a volatile, harsh region of extremes, Worster noted.

But global warming could accentuate the extremes of the Kansas climate, according to the best estimates of scientists, with more powerful storms and longer, more punishing periods of drought and heat.

Kansas is facing a "hotter, drier climate" under most warming scenarios. Wichita's climate could become more like Albuquerque's, Worster said.
The winter wheat belt could shift hundreds of miles north, Worster said, upending the state's traditional agricultural base.

Our water supply could dwindle, endangering communities and severely limiting economic growth.

Moreover, the Great Plains' dependence on fossil fuels for wealth makes it "one of the most economically vulnerable regions" in America.

Do we think the feds will bail us out when the disaster aid bill starts adding up into the billions? Don't count on it, Worster said -- especially with coastal areas facing Katrina-scale destruction at every bend.

Mistakes of vision, policy
Worster acknowledged that he is no scientist. And that regional climate prediction is "fraught with uncertainty."

But as a historian, he has seen our society make these mistakes of vision and policy before, with disastrous consequences.

During the Dust Bowl, 100 million acres in Kansas suffered soil erosion. Nearly a billion tons of dirt blew away; in some counties, 1 in 3 residents drew relief from the government.

Western Kansas, in particular, was a place inhabited by "environmental refugees."

Think those Dust Bowl conditions can't happen again? Think again. "We are doing our best to bring them back," he said. Except this time, the heat and dust and drought wouldn't just last for a few years -- they could be permanent.

"We have arrived at the most critical point in the history of the Great Plains -- and perhaps of our civilization," Worster said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court this week heard arguments in what might be the most important environmental decision of our lifetimes. At issue is whether 12 states have "standing" in a global warming lawsuit -- that is, do they stand to be harmed if the Environmental Protection Agency continues to refuse to regulate carbon dioxide emissions?

Kansas isn't one of the parties to the suit. But make no mistake: Kansas has standing in this debate.

Worster noted one looming decision staring Kansas in the face: the proposed coal-fired power plant complex near Holcomb that could spew billions of tons of greenhouse-gas pollutants into the atmosphere over the next 50 years.

Does this state believe warming matters or not?
I know, I know: It's hard to believe, in the midst of a winter cold snap, that global warming is any threat to Kansas.
Bring it on, right?

Be careful what you wish for.
Worster is one of our wise men. He said he has learned a simple but profound truth in his study of the past: A successful civilization depends on a harmony with nature.

What our culture needs, he said, is "a more humble view of our place on Earth," one based on mutuality and interdependence.
"Our fate is tied to the land."

Kansans ignore that long view at our peril.